Kalshi recently announced that Milwaukee Bucks star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo had secured a small equity stake in the prediction markets company. There has been substantial conversation about whether Antetokounmpo should make this investment.
However, there has been less analysis on whether Antetokounmpo’s relationship makes business sense for Kalshi. Our analysis, leveraging ROAR’s tools, data partners, and models, does not find initial success and highlights a common theme around fit for these types of relationships.
Prediction markets in a sports context are platforms where participants buy and sell outcome‑based contracts tied to games or events. Prices reflect the crowd’s collective probability of each outcome. These markets typically involve binary (yes/no) contracts that resolve based on an event occurring.
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two best‑known prediction markets expanding into sports. They generate revenue from sports‑related contracts by charging transaction and settlement fees on trades placed within their regulated markets.
Rather than evaluating whether these companies should be allowed to enter sports or whether prediction markets constitute sports betting, our goal is to assess whether Antetokounmpo can drive business outcomes for Kalshi, specifically increasing revenues or enhancing brand perception.
We completed audience, sentiment, and topic analyses to evaluate whether the Antetokounmpo–Kalshi relationship is likely to generate value using behavioral‑based data.
From an audience perspective, ROAR typically begins by analyzing behavioral data for fans—defined here as individuals who follow a specific account. ROAR then examines other accounts followed by these fans and integrates this information into its models to uncover general, sports, and brand interests.
We analyzed 740.9 thousand fans who follow Antetokounmpo’s X / Twitter account and compared them to the general population. We found that Antetokounmpo’s fans were 6.2 times more likely to follow sports betting and gambling accounts. This suggests that Antetokounmpo can reach Kalshi’s target audience.
However, ROAR consistently finds that sports fans generally are more likely to follow sports and gambling accounts. When we examined followers of other basketball accounts, we found they were 10.6 times more likely to follow sports betting and gambling accounts.
Next, we conducted sentiment analysis. One reason Kalshi likely publicized Antetokounmpo’s investment was to enhance brand perception. ROAR’s proprietary modeling shows a statistically significant positive correlation between brand perception and top‑line revenue generation.
We examined thousands of digital media articles and social media posts (from X/Twitter) from February 6 through February 18, the window following the announcement. ROAR’s sentiment scores range from 0% to 100%. Average digital media sentiment typically measures 17.3%, and average social media sentiment is 18.5%.
We compared Antetokounmpo‑related content to Kalshi’s overall sentiment during the same window. Antetokounmpo‑related content generated a 9.6% score on digital media and 1.4% on social media—well below Kalshi’s overall digital score of 13.5% and social score of 7.8%.
Both channels provide evidence that the announcement did not deliver its intended brand‑building effect. Antetokounmpo‑related social content had substantially lower sentiment and warrants further analysis.
ROAR’s AI‑driven topic analysis identified four dominant themes driving negative sentiment:
1. Backlash to Antetokounmpo partnering with Kalshi.
2. Criticisms of Kalshi—accusations of “selling out” and credibility concerns.
3. Ethical concerns regarding athletes and gambling/ownership relationships.
4. Commentary about Antetokounmpo earning money from the deal, including skepticism about motivations.
This topic analysis suggests Antetokounmpo may not be the ideal fit as a public brand ambassador for Kalshi. Prior to the announcement, he was not associated with sports wagering or prediction markets. The conversation likely reflects this mismatch and results in lower sentiment than average.
This does not mean Antetokounmpo was wrong to invest in Kalshi. Prediction markets have raised billions of dollars at increasingly higher enterprise valuations and his investment provides the opportunity to participate in any potential value accretion.
It also does not mean he will not become an effective investor or ambassador in the long term. For example, his involvement could help attract content creators who may ultimately resonate better with Kalshi’s core audience.
The initial impact of Antetokounmpo’s investment highlights an important lesson for companies pursuing investment or brand partnerships: relationships must authentically resonate with the target audience to drive both revenue and brand outcomes.
Using ROAR’s tools to perform deep dives into audience, topic, and sentiment data helps organizations evaluate and optimize these relationships using this lens.